RiskyAl - 008

Hi everyone,

it has been a week since last updates. lol.. just a very short writeup to update some of my current trades.

Today's trade:

China Taisan: double up my holdings @19.5cents

- Due for financial report soon. Believe that it would be a good quarter for Taisan.

Buying queues:

Chinaenv: @0.23 - 0.235

Dapai: @0.19 - 0.195

Aztech: @0.195

Market views:

Correction is not here for the STI component stocks yet but some pennies are already correcting. So will still wait patiently for the 'last pennies rally' before existing most of my holdings. After doubling taisan's holding, I am about 50% vested. Be hopeful, and vigilant. Hope got more time to monitor as school holiday is coming.

Huat Ah!

RiskyAl - 007

Congrats to those who have gotten GLP! With STI dropping 23 points, closing at 2.17 is really considered not badz. its some 10% increase!

Have MIA for sometime, cos didnt have much trade. Feel that its about time to update my trades.

Today's trades:

China Taisan: bought @0.195cents. Came down from 24cents high recently. think it drop down too fast too furious. Hope to ride the rebound wave. looking at 21cents - 22cents to sell.

Queue for tml:

Sell:

China Taisan: queue to sell from 21cents.

Buy:

China Environment: 24cents. Ding Dong up and down within 24.5cents to 27cents for the past few weeks. Should have quite a good support at 24cents unless a big correction takes place.

Dapai: 17.5cents-18cents. The recent plunge is due to the profit warning given by the company. Company see a significant drop in profit in the coming FR as its luggage sales is adversely affected due to supplier shortage of workers, hence cannot meet the demand required by the retail shops. Its still risky to buy as its hard to predict how badly is it being affected by the supplier issue. But will nimble a bit if it continues to drop. should have some rebound, even if it continues to drop thereafter. (sounds crazy huh, lol)

Random thoughts for the market:

STI have hit 3200 recently, which is my lower bracket prediction range(3200-3300) for this wave of rally. At this point of time, the chances of having a correction is higher and higher as STI is breaking new highs. Hence I have to be very nimble in the trade, and even get ready to cut lose when necessary. We have seen this wave up to 3200 are benefiting mostly the blue chips. Base on previous experience, we might still have one more penny rally before this bull run come to an end. Even though still habour this hope, I am only now less than 50% invested. Will only play with the counters I am familiar with at this point of time. Hence, the recent Taisan will be only a short term play.

That's all for now.

May all HUAT!

MervHoldings - 002

Tomorrow marks an interesting day for quite a lot of people - people who have bid and managed to get themselves a lot or two of GLP's IPO. I am one of those people.

Bidding for an IPO is probably something that a value investor would not have done. Let me rephrase that - bidding for an IPO for speculation is something that a value investor would not have done. My first and last IPO bid was that of CapMallAsia and I am still holding it ever since its listing. However, tomorrow would be the first time I have bid an IPO for pure speculative purposes. How high would GLP climb tomorrow? Would it even climb up in the first place?

I am quite excited to see the progression of tomorrow's market. Earning a quick buck should not be a cornerstone for value investors but I will be a speculator for a few days this week. There are still a few IPOs floating around - Mapletree Industrial Trust. Mun Siong Engineering Ltd and Anchun International Holdings Ltd. Seems like there is a frenzy of IPOs in the Singapore Market lately. It could only mean that the STI is performing well, attracting companies to launch IPOs here on our shores.

Does it mean that all things are rosy here in Singapore? For all the positive things here in Singapore, you can read all the not-so-pretty news that is happening from the U.S. While a double dip certainly does not look like happening here in Singapore, recovery does not seem as smooth in the U.S. based on the data they have released.

What does that mean for the average investor? The DOW has just hit its highest level in a few months. If history means anything, we will probably see a correction soon. Probably. Not that I hope for it but, if you have been investing, you would know that there is no smooth road to recovery. Patience, friends, patience.

Now, let us hope for a good opening for GLP tomorrow.

SafetyChaos - 006

With the recent surge in STI, there aren't much value stocks left that catches my attention as most of them seem 'overpriced'. Other then the recent IPOs, I doubt I'll be making any new addition to my portfolio for the local market. Saying this, I have applied for GLP and was fortunate (we'll have to wait and see first) enough to be successfully in the application. Since there's still time till MIT closes, I'm contemplating on whether to apply for that too. Will ponder it over the weekends.

The next issue for me is to work on how long should I hold on to both GLP and MIT (if i've successfully applied for it). Should I sell it off in the first few weeks to make a quick profit (hopefully) or should I hold on longer for their dividends of around 7%-8% annually. Another thing to ponder over the weekends.

I'm testing out a 'speculative cum investment strategy' recently. It seems to be working fine now, but will need a few more 'real' scenarios to justify whether it actually works. My next test subject is Wells Fargo, a counter which I've mentioned in my recent post and finally gotten my hands on it @ 23.50. So let's see how it goes on from here.

It's the weekend! Which means I should be spending more time on other stuff then posting here.. Time to go then. Enjoy your weekends!

Regards,

SafetyChaos

SafetyChaos - 005

Howdy,

It seems that blue chips are the hot kids in town right now. Most of them are experiencing some very healthy gains recently. Their opposite, the pennies, aren't doing that well (although there's still some that did superbly).

With the blue chips being so bullish, the physiological effect it has on the masses is that, the economy is doing very well. Thus, many companies took this opportunity to either release rights issue to generate additional funds or come up with large IPOs.

The current 2 big IPOs are the Global Logistics Properties (GLP) and Mapletree Industrial Trust (MIT). With the former being priced at $1.96 and the later at $0.93. Each hoping to raise $3billion and $1.19billion respectively. The 'backers' for these 2 IPOs are quite powerful too. Thus, I do think that they are the stocks worth putting money into (As of now, the IPO for GLP is closed. MIT will be closed on 18th Oct 2010, 8am).

If they perform well on their first week or so, do lookout for our STI to end the year off with a high note.

P.S: I've applied for the GLP IPO. Have you?

Cheers,
SafetyChaos

SafetyChaos - 004

One Step and A Leap of Faith - Part 0

This blog was set up with the intention of not only educating and getting people interested in stocks but also with the thought of helping them to achieve financial freedom. One may ask, "What is financial freedom?". I guess the the paragraph below, quoted from a website (http://www.getrichslowly.org/blog/2010/07/14/how-do-you-define-financial-freedom), sums it up quite well...

Financial freedom comes when you’ve saved a nest egg large enough that the interest earned from your savings will replace 80% of your current income, adjusted for inflation, when you decide to retire. (Assuming your savings are your only source of retirement income.)

Do note that they did not explicitly say out how much one needs to be financially free. The only number they used is 80%. Thus, it shows that this is a term that can only be truly definited by the individual himself.

There's limitless means to achieve this kind of freedom and stocks is just one of them. Most people will say that stocks are too random, just like gambling. I do agree on the random part but not on the gambling. One thing good about stocks is that you will not lose out all of your capital not matter what (assuming you have already pay out the stock in full). Even if a company declares bankrupt, one will still be entitled to a small 'refund'. In gambling, I doubt this even exist.

With this, I would like to announce that starting from today, I'll be making some posts on the basic of stocks investment. Like how to invest? What do I need? Where do I go? And then gradually, I'll move on to stuff like picking stocks, reading company reports, looking at charts and etc. I'm still very much a greenhorn in this. Thus, I'll like to use this opportunity as well to gain more knowledge and to unrevealed the inner workings of the stock market. This is a lifelong learning in progress...

Cheers,
SafetyChaos

RiskyAl - 006

Hello everyone,

Was packed during the weekends, hence only got the time to update my trades now.

Trade for the day:

No trade done as all stocks didn't hit my target prices.

Generally a 'bad' day for me since that stocks that I was queuing for shot up before I could get them. A good 4-6% increased within a day. =.="

Those stocks that moved..

1. Dapai - from 24cents to 25cents within the day but close back to 24cents. Quite a high vol transacted at 25cents. Hence, should be able to sell it if have hold the stocks till then.
2. China Gaoxian - from as low as 18cents to highest of 19.5cents. Close at 19cents
3. China Environment - from 25cents to as high as 26.5cents. Close at 26cents

Even though its painful to see them shot up, but I still prefer to play on the safe side. Will only buy on dip. Don't like to chase after stocks. Hopefully will still have chance to load them at a low price.

Trade for tml (monday 11/10/2010):

Queue to buy:

Dapai: 23.5cents/23cents.

Dapai indeed went up to 25cents as I have expected previously on Friday but dropped back at 24cents again when market closed. Will wait patiently for the price to drop again before entering.

China Env: 23.5/24cents

Another stocks that went up on Friday. It went up to as high as 26.5cents before ending at 26cents. Will still queue at the current price. Would consider it a steal if the price do come down to that level again. The movement for the stocks recently is quite volatile and hence, it quite good for trading. Have a good 1-2cents difference within a day.

China Gaoxian: 17.5cents

To be on the safe side, I will still queue at 17.5cents. Although it is highly not possible.

No queue to sell since only left with Action Asia. Can hold longer.

___________________________________________________________________________

Random View for Monday:

STI dropped towards the end of the trading time on Friday was actually expecting DOW and Euro market to close red that night. Instead, Dow was up 50+ points at the end of the trading. Hence I am expecting STI index to up in the morning and maybe some profit taking in the afternoon.The whole day should be within the + - 15 range?

US market is closed due to Columbus day. Hence STI will most probably take cues from Shanghai Index.

Okie.. thats all for me for the night.

Wish me luck. Huat ah!

-RiskyAl

IceCorp - 000

Hi Everyone,

First a short introduction about myself - Currently, I consider myself mainly a value investor with occasional speculations. I will be contributing my thoughts mainly on equity and some forex. My current portfolio consists of only SGX listed equity, the goal is to accumulate and appreciate with minimal supervision. I will also add on to my current holdings when there is a dip in price given that the initial criteria of purchase remains unchanged or until I find a better investment vehicle to replace it with. There will NOT be take-profit points for my portfolio as I do not believe in selling my best performers.

Some of my criterias for stock selection include good dividend yield, high quick ratio, low P/E ratio, stable management, stable shareholders. Below is my current portfolio with my purchase price followed by the MTM (mark to market) price as of 7 Oct 2010.

1. China Taisan ($0.14; $0.225)
2. K1 Venture ($0.12; $0.16)
3. Lee Metal ($0.19; $0.215)
4. MapleTree Log Tst ($0.60; $0.875)
5. Epicentre ($0.15; $0.28)
6. Karin Technology ($0.13; $0.21)

Currently I am considering Teck Wah as recommended by SafetyChaos and FSL Trust. Both of them have yet to reach a level that is attractive to me. Changes to my portfolio should be relatively few compared to RiskyAl as I dislike paying brokerage!!

On a side note: The USD weakness is astounding, AUD/USD is approaching parity. This weakness seems set to continue for a while with some limited ranged rebounds at the resistance areas.

Till next time.

IceCorp

RiskyAl - 005

Some introduction on some of the stocks I am holding or interested in:

Let me first start of with Action Asia. =)

Action Asia:

BACKGROUNDThe Group was incorporated in Singapore on 2 August 2002 under the name of Action Asia Limited. The Group designs, manufactures and assembles mobile audio and video entertainment products. It is able to integrate sophisticated components into complete solutions which perform an array of functions customized specifically to its target market’s individual needs. Its products are broadly classified into mobile entertainment products and portable indoor/outdoor products. Incorporating the latest innovations in Thin Film Transistor-Liquid Crystal Display (TFT-LCD) technology, its mobile products are installed mainly in automobiles and commercial vehicles. Its other portable products are targeted at homes, hospitals and outdoors. Action Asia’s products are marketed chiefly to automobile manufacturers/dealers, automobile accessories dealers and hypermarkets worldwide. -from www.sgx.com

Plus points for Action Asia
Action remains attractive, at 3x CY11 P/E and below its CY10 book value. Our target price remains S$0.40, offering more than 100% upside. This pegs Action at slightly below 6x CY11 P/E.

Good Business Fundamental
* Solid topline growth, reflecting its success with Philips. Action shipped close to 1.5m DVD players (mostly portable type) in 2Q, up from about 1m in 1Q10.
• 10th consecutive quarter of double-digit yoy profit growth. Bottom line would have been stronger, excluding S$278k for assets written off.
• Order momentum remains robust in the seasonally strongest 3Q withno signs of a slowdown from key customer. However, order visibility for 4Q remains cloudy at this moment. This is not surprising as we have assumed peak earnings in 3Q and a slowdown in 4Q.
• Raw material availability has improved, and there is more room forprice negotiations in 3Q. This could ameliorate ongoing pricing pressure.

Stats and Figures

Open :	0.190	No. of Shares :	399.000m	PE :	4.0
High :	0.190	Mkt Cap :	S$75.810m	EPS :	S$0.048
Low :	0.190	52-Wk High :	0.225	Div :	S$0.01
Last Close :	0.185	52-Wk Low :	0.130	Yield :	5.3
Price-to-Book :	0.91	Avg. Vol :	668	NAV :	S$0.209

Attractive points:

Low PE of 4.

Decent Yield of 5.3%.

Potential of Dual Listing.

RiskyAl - 004

hmm... Mer mentioned the blog is a bit dead.. so I guess, instead of posting under 'comments', I should start a new thread every time when I post something on my trades. lol.

Today STI is down 23 points. but my pennies not much movement except china environment drop back to 24.5cents again, returning all the gains it made the previous day.

Trade for the day:

Sold Dapai @24cents. Selling reasons: Seems got huge sell off at 24cents at around 4pm, when the Euro markets and US futures doesn't seem optimistic and STI was down 30 points. Hence, base on gut feel, sold it before the 24cents queue was cleared off.

after taking off the commission fees, still earn a bit of kopi money.

Didn't get any new stocks as all didn't hit my target price.

Trade for tml (Friday):

Queue to buy:

Dapai: 23.5cents.

Courage marine: 18.5cents

China Env: 23.5/24cents

China Gaoxian: 0.175cents

No queue to sell since only left with Action Asia. Can hold longer.

Wish me luck. Huat ah!

-RiskyAl

_____________________________________________________________________

These are the previous days trading....

ah lam said...

China Gaoxian - Failed to get it at 0.175 today before it went up to 0.185. Will monitor and see how the price go before entering again.

China Environment - price not hit. will continue to queue at 0.235.

both Action Asia and Dapai will queue at the same price as mentioned above.

Some random thoughts:
Should have one more wave of pennies rally before a big correction.
STI should go to 3200-3300 before correction. gut feel should be somewhere in November.

October 5, 2010 11:43 PM

ah lam said...

Omg.. Dow +170.. hopefully pennies will chiong tml!
btw, just to add, is looking at courage marine @0.185. Queue to buy! Wish me luck!

October 6, 2010 1:24 AM

ah lam said...

Another good day for STI blue chips. STI up 27 points my pennies are not moving much. Think the BBs are very cautious now as many are expecting a correction to come soon.

Trade for the day:
No trade done. Both buying and selling queue didn't hit the target price.

Action Asia - close down -0.5cents @ 18.5cents. Will monitor and might avg down at 17.5cents if it drop further. Still queuing to sell @20.5cents. (well..not very possible, but its good to dream sometimes.)

China Environment - seems like 24.5cents is a strong support. close at 25.5cents. Don't think will go down to 23.5 in short term. Not queuing.

Dapai - creep up another half a cent today. 24cents queue cleared. another 1 cent to hit my target of 25cents. made 2 queues to sell. one @ 25cents and the other @25.5cents. Will decide again which price to remove after seeing dow's performance tonite.

Courage Marine - up half a cent to 19.5cents but not many shares transacted at that price. will still queue @ 18.5cents.(down risk limited as its near it lowest price.)

China Gaoxian - price still at 18 - 18.5cents.
Queue at 17.5cents.

To be review again tml!
Huat ah!

-RiskyAl

October 6, 2010 7:37 PM

MervHoldings - 001

The blog has been quiet so I figured I should make my first real post.

Since I do not trade frequently, I will not have post on trade actions to show. Rather, following my type of approach, I would recommend some good material for people new to stock investment from time to time.

Since I do not trade in the U.S. Market, I cannot really give detailed comments about what I think about certain stocks in the U.S. However, I can generally say that the U.S. Market, although still weak in recovery compared to some other countries, should not go into a double dip. I, for one, do not think that a double dip is going to happen (I hope not too). They have already screwed it up once...they cannot afford to do so again in such a short period of time.

On the flip side, the STI is making a great recovery. Many stocks have been setting recent 52-week highs and with Singapore's stable economy and sound financial systems in place, recovery is only a matter of time. I believe many of the higher priced stocks of old will gain back their value as healthy results should start to roll in. Slowly in 2010 but I think we should be seeing a better acceleration of results in 2011. Quite a few stocks now are still cheap in my opinion and I feel, in about 2 years time, their prices now would be considered a steal.

For a good read on the different terms and mechanics of stock investments, especially those new to investing, can take a look at www.investopedia.com for some useful information.

MervHoldings - 000

A short introduction about myself - As my name suggests, I am the kind who buys and holds a certain stock till I have a good reason to sell or I am being forced to. Due to this strategy, I have witnessed my stocks go down -80%+ in value but also in the other direction.

I am just 3-4 years into the market but I have started investing through Unit Trusts and Fundsupermart about 5-6 years ago. Now though, I am 100% stocks...almost. I am glad I was vested during the 2007 crisis; not because of the paper value that was lost of course, but due to the fact that I was able to experience the emotions and the lessons learned through such a crisis. It can teach you a lot about yourself, your risk appetite and basically, what type of investor you are.

Now, in 2010, we are in the midst of a slow but sure recovery from the Great Recession. All of my counters held in my portfolio are at least a year old...with my last trade coming this Jan.

Current holdings:

Capitaland (bought@$2.28)
CapitaComm (bought@$0.945)
CapitaMall (bought@$2.587)
CapMallsAsia (bought@$2.12)
CoscoCorp (bought@$3.188)
Kepland (bought@2.69)

...No, I don't work for Capitaland.

I have still yet to dabble in U.S. Stocks...but that time will arrive...

RiskyAl - 003

Okie.. Last time paper trade quite a number of stocks and let them run until nobody business..

its time to get some action here.

Queuing to buy:
China Gaoxian @ 0.17/0.175 ( It went up to 20cents+ during the recent bull run but drop back almost to the pre-bull run level. Hence I think its over-sold. Would buy some. 25-30lots.

China Environment @2.3/0.235 (same as China Gaoxian. Should have good support at 0.23-0.235. buy 25lots.)

Dapai @ 0.215 (will avg down if it goes down to that level.)

Queuing to sell:

Action Asia @ 0.205 (the rally didnt come as expected. This price seems toppish. Hence will sell with around 5% profit. )

Dapai @0.25 (still confident on this stock. hence will only sell at 1.5cents profit.)

other stocks that I am looking at:

1. Lee metal

SafetyChaos - 003

Both STI and US has been doing some wave surfing recently. Closing positive one day and negative the other. However, a larger swing in the difference can be seen more in the US market as compared to STI. Are more investors starting to recognize the potential of the Asian countries? If one wants more volatility, US stocks are still the one to go. But if your aim is for a stable and sometimes 'boring' stock, STI is the better place for you.

STI has been really resilience lately. Losing less and gaining more. Are we going to see a 3400 at the end of the year? Possible. Quoted from a friend of mine, "Bulls on rumor, Bear on news"

Time to check out the magic ball..

Here comes the new Challenger

I'm in mist of inviting 2 more 'savvy' investors to contribute and share their views on the market. As compared to the current 2 tipster, RiskyAl and SafetyChaos, they are much more of a value investor. Criteria for stocks to be registered into their radar consist of principles like, undervalued price, growth potential and stable earning. I would not reveal too much about them until they are officially onboard.

So do check back soon and hopefully by the next time you're back, they've already made some great post to share.